“The past is the best predictor of the future” is one of humankind’s most reliable decision-making aids. It’s a highly useful heuristic, except when it collides with sudden changes in the status quo – what we popularly call tipping points and which can be biological, political, cultural, technological or emotional.
Today’s New York Times offers a compelling review of the two-year pan-Arab youth movement culminating in the 18-day revolution that unseated the 30-year reign of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. The revolution’s outcome was a tipping point that formal intelligence channels didn’t predict. “…[T]he American intelligence community and Israel’s intelligence services had estimated that the risk to President Mubarak was low – less than 20 percent ….” But according to the Times, President Obama interpreted the information differently and acted in accordance with his own analysis of events.
Nothing goes up forever, and nothing goes down forever. A straight, uninterrupted line in any direction will fail to predict the future. The simple fact that a condition continues and continues will eventually produce new events that lead to a new condition which produces new events that … you get it.
Which leaves intelligence workers with the usual questions: What are the cycles and patterns of change? When will the tipping points happen? How and where and when can we position ourselves to benefit most from events we can never completely control?
These are also some of the most compelling questions for decision makers.
Showing posts with label decision making. Show all posts
Showing posts with label decision making. Show all posts
Monday, February 14, 2011
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
New law firm CI book published
As many of you know, I've recently written a book about law firm CI. It has now been published in the UK by the Ark Group / Managing Partner magazine.
My book is titled Competitive Intelligence: Improving Law Firm Strategy and Decision Making. You can learn more about the book and download sample sections here. You can also purchase it here.
This book is aimed at a broad audience -- partners and senior managers of law firms, CI practitioners and othes inside or outside law firms who want to understand how to apply CI in a law firm setting.
It takes a highly practical look at how CI is applied in firms. It also addresses how CI in the legal industry is similar to and distinct from CI in other industries, the challenges peculiar to law firms, typical law firm key intelligence topics and assignments, and more.
This report will surprise some readers when it describes how some firms are already executing the full range of CI activities as that discipline is practiced in the corporate world. As with other business disciplines once considered "not for law firms," the full spectrum of CI activities, legally and ethically executed, is rapidly being accepted by more law firm leaders.
The greatest demand in law firm CI these days is for sophisticated analysts with strong legal industry knowledge, business savvy and broad analytical skills. Without their eventual contributions, CI in law firms will not advance beyond information gathering, which, although useful, cannot offer decision makers the fuller benefits of actionable intelligence.
Whether your firm already has informal CI in-house capabilities and wants to upgrade them, wishes to engage the services of external CI consultants or hopes to learn how to utilize its existing CI resources to become more competitive, this book will help you decide where you should start.
Please check it out.
My book is titled Competitive Intelligence: Improving Law Firm Strategy and Decision Making. You can learn more about the book and download sample sections here. You can also purchase it here.
This book is aimed at a broad audience -- partners and senior managers of law firms, CI practitioners and othes inside or outside law firms who want to understand how to apply CI in a law firm setting.
It takes a highly practical look at how CI is applied in firms. It also addresses how CI in the legal industry is similar to and distinct from CI in other industries, the challenges peculiar to law firms, typical law firm key intelligence topics and assignments, and more.
This report will surprise some readers when it describes how some firms are already executing the full range of CI activities as that discipline is practiced in the corporate world. As with other business disciplines once considered "not for law firms," the full spectrum of CI activities, legally and ethically executed, is rapidly being accepted by more law firm leaders.
The greatest demand in law firm CI these days is for sophisticated analysts with strong legal industry knowledge, business savvy and broad analytical skills. Without their eventual contributions, CI in law firms will not advance beyond information gathering, which, although useful, cannot offer decision makers the fuller benefits of actionable intelligence.
Whether your firm already has informal CI in-house capabilities and wants to upgrade them, wishes to engage the services of external CI consultants or hopes to learn how to utilize its existing CI resources to become more competitive, this book will help you decide where you should start.
Please check it out.
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