Every
four or five years, the US National Intelligence Council (NIC) publishes a Global
Trends report. And now Global Trends 2030
has just been released. A short (5-page) briefing can be found here. The longer (160-page) report can be
downloaded in pdf, iPad and Kindle formats here.
The
executive summary describes the NIC’s goals for this massive effort:
“This
report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical
changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories during
the next 15-20 years. As with the NIC’s previous Global Trends reports, we do
not seek to predict the future—which would be an impossible feat—but instead
provide a framework for thinking about possible futures and their implications.”
Since
the mid-1990s I’ve studied these Global Trends reports carefully, using them to
ground myself about changes I see in the economy, the legal industry, and my personal
investment options. Below are my very quick Cliffs Notes on this latest report.
Global Megatrends
The
global megatrends (relative certainties) presented and discussed in the 2030 report
include:
Individual
empowerment
·
Rapidly
expanding middle class (for the first time, most of world’s population aren’t in
poverty)
·
Life
expectancy increases rapidly, with deaths from communicable diseases dropping more
than 40%
·
Religious,
ethnic and national identities are strengthened
·
More
technological breakthroughs in information, communication, manufacturing, healthcare,
warcraft are great levelers for good and evil
·
Individuals
and states experience greater stress levels
Diffusion
of power
·
Asia
surpasses North America and Europe in global economic power
·
Power/impact
of Europe, Japan and Russia lessens
·
No
global hegemonic political power remains – regional conflicts and regional partnerships
are both possible
Demographic
patterns
·
World
population becomes increasingly urbanized (from 50% to 60%), and urban
construction explodes
·
Economic
growth may decline in demographically aging countries
·
Youthful
countries are politically unstable (the “demographic arc of instability”)
·
Global
migration and immigration increases
Food,
water, energy nexus
·
Huge
increases in demand for food (35%), water (40%) and energy (50%)
·
Addressing
demands for each of these commodities is linked to supply and demand for the
others
·
Severe
weather patterns intensify – wet areas get wetter, dry areas get drier
Critical Game
Changers
The report posits six critical variables whose trajectories are
far less certain and are subject to control by state and non-state actors:
1.
Crisis-prone global economy - Will divergences and increased
volatility result in more global breakdown? Or will the development of multiple
growth centers lead to increased resiliency?
2.
Governance gap - Will current forms of
governance and international institutions be able to adapt fast enough to
harness and channel change instead of being overwhelmed by it?
3.
Potential for increased
conflict - Will
rapid changes and shifts in power lead to conflicts?
4.
Wider scope of regional
instability - Will
regional instability, especially in the Middle East and South Asia, spill over
and create global insecurity?
5.
Impact of new technologies - Will technological
breakthroughs occur in time to solve the problems caused by rapid urbanization,
strain on natural resources, and climate change?
6.
Role of the United States - Will the US, as the
leading actor on the world stage and with its new energy independence, be able to
reinvent the international system, carving out potential new roles in an
expanded world order?
Four Alternative
Worlds / Scenarios
Like
the preceding global trends reports, the 2030 report includes four different
global 15-to-20-year scenarios for use by organizations that engage in scenario
planning. The four Alternative Worlds posited are:
1. Stalled Engines – In the most
plausible worst-case scenario, the risks of interstate conflict increase. A
pandemic hits, the US draws inward, and globalization stalls.
2. Fusion – In the most plausible best-case outcome,
China and the US collaborate on a range of issues, leading to broader global
cooperation.
3. Gini-Out-of-the-Bottle – Inequalities explode
as some countries become big winners and others fail. Inequalities within
countries increase social tensions. Without completely disengaging, the US is
no longer the “global policeman.”
4. Nonstate World – Driven by new
technologies, nonstate actors take the lead in confronting global challenges.
What's Next?
I
know how full the days (and nights) of law firm CI professionals can be. However,
I hope you will find time to explore this new report. I also hope some of you
will comment about it. I’ll soon be posting more here about 16 disruptive
technologies, 8 possible black swan events, and other topics discussed in the Global Trends 2030 report.